5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 04 Sep 2010 23:39:10 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 04 Sep 2010 21:08:30 GMT

000
ABNT20 KNHC 042338
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT SEP 4 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM EARL...LOCATED ABOUT 55 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CAPE WITTLE
QUEBEC.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF
GASTON HAVE DIMINISHED SOME THIS EVENING. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
...HOWEVER...APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR RE-DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AND
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD RE-FORM IN THIS AREA AT ANY TIME.
THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH. THIS SYSTEM HAS
BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...
40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED BETWEEN THE WEST COAST OF
AFRICA AND THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING LIMITED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED TODAY...AND
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT APPEARS UNLIKELY. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 10
MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BRENNAN

GIS Data last updated Sat, 04 Sep 2010 23:38:20 GMT